Coffee Apocalypse: The Threat of Climate Change to a Cup of the World’s Pleasure

A good day often starts with a delightful cup of coffee, a must-have for many people around the world. Coffee is not just a beverage; it’s a daily ritual that soothes and connects us with millions of people across the globe. However, this ritual of sipping coffee is now under a major threat: climate change.

Coffee, as one of the main commodities in global trade, is now endangered by climate change. A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that climate change could reduce the average coffee harvest worldwide and shrink the land suitable for its cultivation by 2050. This isn’t just a production issue but also a consumption concern, as coffee is the second most consumed beverage globally. The origins of coffee are still shrouded in mystery and legend, but history records that in the ninth century, Arabs may have discovered it in Africa and introduced it into trade along the Silk Road. Since then, coffee has become an integral part of many people’s lives.

Global coffee trade depends on two main species: Arabica (Coffea arabica), which accounts for about 60% of traded coffee, and Robusta (Coffea canephora), which accounts for the remaining 40%. However, the Coffea genus contains 130 species and seven intraspecific taxa that all contribute to the diversity of coffee worldwide.

According to global statistics, the world’s coffee production averages over 10 million tons, with a total harvested area of more than 11 million hectares. The Americas produce more than 55.5% of the world’s coffee, followed by Asia with 31.9%. The largest coffee-producing countries include Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia, although more than seventy other countries are also valuable producers.

However, the impact of climate change on coffee is severe. From a study examining the effects of climate change on coffee agro-systems, results from 42 papers showed that 35 reported negative impacts, with only a few studies showing mixed or positive outcomes. Yield declines are expected to occur across the three main coffee-producing continents: the Americas, Africa, and Asia, with global losses potentially reaching 70%. For instance, in Brazil, the optimal temperature increase for Robusta production is predicted to lower potential yields, threatening a billion-dollar coffee industry and the livelihoods of millions of farmers.

Climate change also affects the suitability of land for coffee production. According to research conducted by Billen et al. (2022), out of 54 papers reviewed, 33 reported significant decreases in suitable areas for coffee cultivation. Major coffee-producing countries like Brazil, Vietnam, Honduras, and India are expected to become less suitable for coffee production. The most significant decreases are anticipated in Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Latin America, with reductions in suitable land reaching up to 90% by 2080.

The effects of climate change are also felt in the spread of coffee pests and diseases. Studies show increased distribution and reproduction rates of pests like the coffee berry borer and white stem borer, as well as increased infestations of coffee nematodes and leaf miners in Brazil. Diseases like coffee rust have become more severe in regions such as Colombia, Central America, and Nicaragua.

Moreover, extreme environmental changes adversely affect the physiology of coffee plants. Research indicates that conditions such as cold, high air temperatures, and drought reduce photosynthesis, transpiration rates, and net carbon assimilation rates in coffee plants. This leads to yield declines, changes in quality, and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases.

Climate change also impacts the quality of coffee beans. Climate variability leads to declines in coffee bean quality, as reported in Nicaragua. By 2050, the ability to produce high-quality coffee beans is expected to decrease, affecting the taste and aroma of coffee.

Climate change not only affects production but also the socio-economic conditions of farmers. Extreme weather events lead to declines in farmers’ incomes, increased production costs, and heightened food insecurity. This forces farmers to migrate to other regions, sacrifice forest cover, and change land use.

Although some adaptations can be made, such as developing more climate-resistant coffee varieties or moving cultivation zones to higher altitudes, these challenges remain daunting. In conclusion, climate change threatens the sustainability of the global coffee industry, impacting millions of people who rely on coffee for their livelihoods. A coffee apocalypse may not just be fiction but a reality that must be faced if real action is not taken to address climate change.

Sources:

1. [NCBI article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9824350/)
2. IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (2019)

Contributor:

Meiardhy Mujianto